A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
