Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.